Sunday, April 27, 2014

El Niño in 2014 - Will we have one?

Staff Writer, DL Mullan
El Nino / Oceanography

El Nino is coming. Strong. Understated. Hang on to your hats; it's going to be a bumpy ride. 
As part of their subdued forecast, Klotzbach and Gray predict a 35 percent chance that a hurricane will strike Florida, compared with the long-term average of 51 percent. The state has gone a record eight seasons without a hurricane hit.

Klotzbach and Gray, of Colorado State University, are considered elite tropical forecasters; Gray pioneered the development of seasonal outlooks in the early 1980s.
So their predictions are:
Phil Klotzbach and William Gray released their outlook Thursday, calling for nine named storms, including three hurricanes, one intense. That's far below the average of 12 named storms, including six hurricanes, three major. 
Florida has a 35% chance of getting hit this year, down from the usual 51% chance. The last eight seasons Florida has avoided taking a direct hit.

Hurricane season begins on June 1st and runs through Nov. 30th.

For it's part, NOAA states:
"ENSO-neutral conditions continue. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) were above-average near the International Date Line and in the east-central Pacific.  
While ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, the chances of El Niño increase during the remainder of the year, exceeding 50% by summer." 

Source: Suspicious Observers, Huffington Post